5  September   2010,  Sunday
 
 
Turkish

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Session Comment
ISE-100 Index closed Wednesday from 40376 level with 374 points gain. Trading volume realized at USD 1,5 bn. level. GARAN, ISCTR, YKBNK, ARCLK and IHEVA were the active stocks of the day. TL values of USD and Euro realized at TL 1,4865 and TL 2,0950 levels respectively. ISE experienced a sales pressured opening to the day. Mixed closings in US on Tuesday (as investors weighed a weaker-than-expected consumer confidence report and a better-than-expected housing report in the aftermath of a big rally) and losses at US futures had negative influence over ISE. On the other hand recovery at US futures and premiums at European Stock Markets by the mid first ISE session resulted with purchases at ISE. 39519 became a daily deep at ISE-100 Index and rose above 40000 once again. Forex market on the other hand followed a purchase weighted course. Inflation report announced by CBRT was the focus point of the financial markets. Additionally CBRT governor, Yılmaz stated that CBRT was trying to decide whether there was a need to start making foreign currency purchase auctions. Average compound interest rates over the bond market dropped by 20 to 47 base points to historical lows.
On Friday Treasury will announce Its August refinancing and redemption program. July inflation datas will be announced on Monday afternoon after the markets are closed.
CPI and PPI expectations on a monthly basis are at 0,2 % and -0,1 % respectively. CPI and PPI expectations in annual terms are at 5,87 % and 4,80 % respectively. Deflation process of the real economy is being followed in terms of when the recession will transform to growth. We expect further rate cut from MPC of CBRT at 25th of August because of the ongoing economic recession in Türkiye. The subject of government-IMF stand-by agreement approval is being used for a long time now but Its somewhat losing Its strength over the markets as an expectation (with the unidentifiable money entrance of USD 18 bn. to the budget which finances the current account loss in Türkiye). Another critical issue will be whether and when an IMF group will be invited to Türkiye as this will mean the sides are ready to agree. The government may make USD 20 bn. valued stand-by agreement with IMF till September 20th. On The other hand the government would be inclined to keep the IMF as an insurance policy on the sidelines against an unexpected deterioration in global market conditions. It will be quite possible for ISE to decouple from the other EMs and US Markets. Current account loss, debt financing and Türkiye's inner dynamics are at the upper side of the daily agenda of the markets. Long-term profit realizations can be utilized at 2010-2011. We expect CBRT to stay on hold till the end of December unless a sudden rise occurs at commodity prices rather than a gradual rise and/or a surge at inflation. Current account loss and activities of the central banks' will be followed.
39800, 39500, 39000, 38500, 38250, 37700, 37000 and 36700 are our supports at ISE-100 Index with 40450, 40600, 40900 and 41300 levels as the resistances.
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