5  September   2010,  Sunday
 
 
Turkish

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Session Comment
ISE-100 Index closed Monday from 53296 level with 670 points gain. Trading volume realized at USD 1,31 bn. level. ISCTR, GARAN, VAKBN, AKBNK and EREGL were the active stocks of the day. TL values of USD and Euro realized at TL 1,5315 and TL 2,0905 levels respectively. ISE experienced a purchase oriented opening to the day. Industrial production rose by 12,1 % at January vs. oya (expectations were at 15,9 % rise) and dropped by 15,3 % vs. oma. Treasury's 9 months (182 days) termed reference bond auction resulted with USD 1,32 bn. net sales vs. USD 2,15 bn. purchase proposal from the markets. Auction's average simple and compound interest rates realized at 7,07 % and 7,19 % levels respectively. Slight sales pressure at European Stock Markets turned to purchases in the afternoon and ISE-100 Index surpassed 53000 level.
Treasury will make 4 years (1610 days) termed once a coupon paid in every six months fixed couponed bond auction at 10th of March. Amount of the demand, net sales and compound interest rates to be formed at the auction will be noted by the financial markets. Markets will follow the relations between secular and AKP part in addition to the political front. Stock based activity will continue at ISE due to the year end fiscal based results of ISE companies. Need for an IMF stand-by was decreased after S&P's rate increase and additionally latest developments at Europe are increasing the credibility of Türkiye as a stability example. Both S&P and Moody’s rate Turkey two notches below the investment grade. In case of another S&P upgrade, Türkiye will be only one notch away from securing the investment grade status. Also rising credibility of Türkiye will result with a rising bargaining power by the government against IMF by the government if a stand-by is needed. The goverment will propably use this option as a safety net against an unexpected deterioration in global market conditions. Stock market's lure originates from MPC of CBRT's halting decision of rate cuts and hence investors should be cautious. Industrial based export weighted ISE companies can be invested via investors. Political risks are being followed in Türkiye. Financing current account deficit will be important due to the rising economic growth in Türkiye. We expect near or slightly above 3,5 % growth in 2010. Additionally growth will most probably rise with the rising expenditures to the upcoming election at 1Q11 or at the summer beginning of 2011. Industrial companies with high operational profitability rather than the interest income from government bonds will be important for the investors. ISE-100 Index and other blue chip shares should be expected to make occasional corrections after the premiums they experienced with the other EMs. Hence support levels of ISE-100 Index can be utilized for long-term long positioning at ISE. Current account loss, debt financing and Türkiye's inner dynamics are at the upper side of the daily agenda of the markets. We expect CBRT to wait for hiking O/N interest rate till the mid 2010 and then start hiking rates by 150-300 base points till the end of 2010 (unless of course a sudden rise occurs at commodity prices rather than a gradual rise at inflation). Current account loss and activities of the central banks' will be followed.
53000, 52500, 52200, 51450, 50850, 50150, 49800, 49200, 48700, 48400 and 47600 are our supports at ISE-100 Index with 53300, 53650, 54030 and 54650 levels as the resistances.
Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeleri yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir. Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti, aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır. Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır. Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabilir. Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.Bu sitede yer alan veriler alım-satım tavsiyesi niteliğinde olmadığından, yapılan ticari hareketlerden kaynaklanabilecek her türlü zarardan HAK MENKUL KIYMETLER A.Ş. sorumlu tutulamaz. Bu Web Site'deki tüm haklar. HAK MENKUL KIYMETLER A.Ş 'ye aittir ve hiç bir amaçla HAK MENKUL KIYMETLER A.Ş.'nin izni olmadan elektronik veya mekanik kayıt cihazları veya benzeri sistemler kullanılarak kısmen ya da tamamen kopyalanamaz, bilgisayar sistemlerine aktarılamaz.