5  September   2010,  Sunday
 
 
Turkish

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Session Comment
ISE-100 Index closed Tuesday from 52959 level with 336 points loss. Trading volume realized at USD 1,23 bn. level. GARAN, ISCTR, VAKBN, EREGL and TCELL were the active stocks of the day. TL values of USD and Euro realized at TL 1,5375 and TL 2,0875 levels respectively. ISE experienced a sales pressured opening to the day. Losses at foreign stock markets and drops at US Futures in addition to the statements coming from Fitch (stated that a credit rate increase would not be feasible before the election is over) resulted with ISE-100 Index dropping to 52100s. USD was purchase weighjted over the bond market. Treasury's 4 years (1610 days) termed once a coupon paid in every six months fixed couponed bond auction reazlied with USD 376 mn. net sales vs. USD 634 mn. purchase proposal from the markets. Auction's average simple and compound interest rates formed at 10,54 % and 10,82 % levels respectively.
Markets will follow the relations between secular and AKP part in addition to the political front. Stock based activity will continue at ISE due to the year end fiscal based results of ISE companies. Need for an IMF stand-by was decreased after S&P's rate increase and additionally latest developments at Europe are increasing the credibility of Türkiye as a stability example. Both S&P and Moody’s rate Turkey two notches below the investment grade. In case of another S&P upgrade, Türkiye will be only one notch away from securing the investment grade status. Also rising credibility of Türkiye will result with a rising bargaining power by the government against IMF by the government if a stand-by is needed. The goverment will propably use this option as a safety net against an unexpected deterioration in global market conditions. Stock market's lure originates from MPC of CBRT's halting decision of rate cuts and hence investors should be cautious. Industrial based export weighted ISE companies can be invested via investors. Political risks are being followed in Türkiye. Financing current account deficit will be important due to the rising economic growth in Türkiye. We expect near or slightly above 3,5 % growth in 2010. Additionally growth will most probably rise with the rising expenditures to the upcoming election at 1Q11 or at the summer beginning of 2011. Industrial companies with high operational profitability rather than the interest income from government bonds will be important for the investors. ISE-100 Index and other blue chip shares should be expected to make occasional corrections after the premiums they experienced with the other EMs. Hence support levels of ISE-100 Index can be utilized for long-term long positioning at ISE. Current account loss, debt financing and Türkiye's inner dynamics are at the upper side of the daily agenda of the markets. We expect CBRT to wait for hiking O/N interest rate till the mid 2010 and then start hiking rates by 150-300 base points till the end of 2010 (unless of course a sudden rise occurs at commodity prices rather than a gradual rise at inflation). Current account loss and activities of the central banks' will be followed.
53000, 52500, 52200, 51450, 50850, 50150, 49800, 49200, 48700, 48400 and 47600 are our supports at ISE-100 Index with 53250, 53650, 54030 and 54650 levels as the resistances.
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