5  September   2010,  Sunday
 
 
Turkish

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Session Comment
ISE-100 Index closed Thursday from 60328 level with 821 points gain. Trading volume realized at USD 1,13 mn. level. GARAN, ISCTR, TEBNK, VAKBN and YKBNK were the active stocks of the day. TL values of USD and Euro realized at TL 1,5140 and TL 1,9635 levels respectively. ISE experienced a purchase weighted opening to the day.ISE-100 Index tested above 60600 historical highs. Forex market experienced a sales pressured opening. Profit realizations at the second session carried ISE-100 Index down to 59700s although better than expected US datas resulted with recovery at ISE resulted with ISE-100 Index movement above 60300s. Treasury will make 7 years (2548 days) termed and variable interest couponed in every three months bond auction at 26th of July, 12 months (357 days) termed bond auction, three years (987 days) termed and fixed interest couponed in every three months bond auction at 27th of July. Amount of the demand, net sales and compound interest rates to be formed at the auctions will be noted by the financial markets.
Announcement of 2Q10 fiscal results of ISE and US companies create stock based movement at ISE. The fiscal rule legislation's passage through parliament of Turkey will be watched by the financial markets after the summer break of the council is over which means the delay will be probably over by October. Credit rate upgrade expectations will increase in case Fiscal Rule passes. Hence continuation of the positive decoupling of Türkiye from the rest of the global markets can continue. Türkiye can be negatively influenced from the ongoing credit crisis in Europe but with a smaller scope due to Its healthy financial status, easing inflation and credit rating increase expectations. On the other hand volatility is high due to the indefiniteness at the financial markets despite being in summer so band movement interval at ISE remains higher than the averages. Sales pressure at ISE occurs with the losses at foreign stock markets but in a smaller scope. Investors should be cautious at profit realizations and drops can be utilized with new long positions from the supports of ISE-100 Index in the long run. A referendum will most probably take place at September 12th for constitutional amendment package. CBRT's rate hikes may never take place till the end of 2010 unless a surge occurs at inflation. We expect MPC to start hiking by the 1H11 in case current inflation trend remains. Country grade of Türkiye still needs to be increased by 2 levels in order to be eligible for foreign investment. An unexpected deterioration in global market conditions will probably result with rising volatility. We think that the government will use IMF stand-by option as the last resort in case of emergency or in case of a sharp sell off. Investor sales may occur due to resource need for Ziraat Bank IPO if it is agreed upon a TL 125 bn. (USD 84 bn.) public offering. Hence the possibility of a correctional course at ISE should be noted. Capital cost seems to be rising with the start of the rate increase era in US and hence industry sector stocks movement with high export potential can be expected at ISE.
59300, 58470, 58300, 57900, 57400, 57000, 56700, 56400, 55800, 55350, 55150, 54600 and 53800 are our supports at ISE-100 Index with 61000, 62000 and 62500 levels as the resistances.
Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeleri yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir. Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti, aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır. Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır. Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabilir. Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.Bu sitede yer alan veriler alım-satım tavsiyesi niteliğinde olmadığından, yapılan ticari hareketlerden kaynaklanabilecek her türlü zarardan HAK MENKUL KIYMETLER A.Ş. sorumlu tutulamaz. Bu Web Site'deki tüm haklar. HAK MENKUL KIYMETLER A.Ş 'ye aittir ve hiç bir amaçla HAK MENKUL KIYMETLER A.Ş.'nin izni olmadan elektronik veya mekanik kayıt cihazları veya benzeri sistemler kullanılarak kısmen ya da tamamen kopyalanamaz, bilgisayar sistemlerine aktarılamaz.